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Last Tuesday's primary contests gave us a sneak preview of the fall midterm elections. Bottom line: Be prepared for a tidal wave of voter rebellion. Running for the open Senate seat in Kentucky, Dr. Rand Paul, the son of libertarian leader Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, won the primary derby, thundering past the handpicked favorite of that state's GOP machinery, Trey Grayson.
Paul's decisive victory was a sharp rebuke to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and former Vice President Dick Cheney, both of whom vigorously endorsed Grayson. In essence, Republican voters in Kentucky rejected the party's establishment and embraced the Tea Party movement.
Paul is now the symbol of the Tea Party movement until the next primary election.
In the Pennsylvania Senate primary, Rep. Joe Sestak, who ran a spirited grassroots campaign, handily defeated incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, a newly minted Democrat. Despite endorsements from President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Gov. Ed Rendell, Democratic voters chose the "real thing" versus the recent convert.
In the only primary contest pitting a Republican and a Democrat, Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district, the Democrat won. Mark Critz's victory is important because PA-12 is culturally conservative and not a reliable Democratic stronghold; Obama lost there in 2008.
The lesson learned? Critz won in a tough political environment by focusing on jobs and the needs of the middle class. His GOP opponent was told to run against Obama and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. He did what he was told, demonizing both leaders. Note to the GOP: It's not about Obama or Pelosi, stupid.
So where was all the anti-incumbent anger? It was not, as it turned out, directed at incumbents because of their incumbency. Rather, voters directed their fury at politicians, both wannabes and incumbents, whom they perceived to be phonies.
On one of the first of many Super Tuesdays, we learned the following lessons:
First, the far right and far left are ascendant in both parties. The extremes of the spectrum made gains in each party's primaries against incumbents who tried to be "all things to all people." This is why, in Arkansas, liberal Lt. Gov. Bill Halter won a run-off with middle-of-the-road Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
Second, the Tea Party movement is gaining strength inside the GOP. And although the Tea Party faction has proven it has enough strength to win primaries and strip power away from the party establishment, there's little proof that their candidates have the power to win a general election, where independent voters will likely dominate.
Third, there is profound voter discontent with Washington. As the saying goes: If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. With precious few exceptions, election results show that Washington lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are viewed as part of the problem.
This tells us that even though Republicans hoping to win control of Congress lost an important race in PA-12, Democrats can't count on the president's coattails to carry them to victory. Incumbents, no matter their party affiliation, are scared. And they should be.
Specter's loss and Paul's win change electoral calculations for the Senate, although I would say right now that the two might just cancel each other out. The good news is that both parties still have time to revise their fall playbooks.
If Rand Paul wants to win the general election, he will have to tack back to the middle from the stances he's taken on the campaign trail for the primary. That seems unlikely, however. Paul, like his father, shows little interest in being mainstreamed. While such fierce independence is guaranteed to get a swathe of voters energized, it's guaranteed to alienate an equal amount of voters on the other side.
Actually, Paul is already in trouble. Forty-three percent of Grayson's supporters actively will not support him in the general election, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling. It's a huge deficit to overcome, and that's within his own party. How is he going to win against a Democrat?
Sestak has a much better chance in his general election than does Paul. This is not the sweeping repudiation of Democrats and their leadership that the GOP wanted. In some races, it can be argued that Democrats haven't gone far enough. People want more change and they just don't trust incumbents to deliver it.
With an anti-establishment tide sweeping the country, there are going to be some interesting match-ups this fall. Only a decade ago, people lamented that there was no difference between Democrats and Republicans. This election will make that statement seem farcical.
As the extremes go head-to-head, major differences between the parties will take center stage. No nuanced differences between largely similar candidates, this election will reveal just how energized the progressive left remains after winning in 2008 and if the Tea Party has gathered the strength it needs from steeping in the hot anger of disillusioned conservatives.
Donna Brazile is a Democratic Party official, political commentator on CNN, ABC and NPR; contributing columnist to Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill; and former campaign manager for Al Gore.
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