Fair Play All the Way
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump had blowout victories in New York this week. Understandably, each exulted in them. Clinton said, “The race for nomination Is In the home stretch, and victory Is In sight.”
Donald Trump said, “Ted Cruz is ‘just about mathematically eliminated.”
Not so fast, folks. The public does not believe this race is over. And I know the states yet to decide (Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Maryland, West Virginia, Connecticut, and California among them), do not relish the idea that they are an afterthought, mere rubber stamps for what is past tense.
Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are pretty much as one in believing that these two contests are benefiting the voters. Exit polls show 68 percent of Democrats feel the race has energized their party, while fewer Republicans say the same. All feel it’s the voters who should decide; not leaders calling for their opponents’ exits.
Millions of Sanders, Cruz, and Kasich supporters want the contest to be a photo finish at the convention wire. Their supporters will rightfully feel cheated if Trump or Clinton force the candidates who bear their dreams out of the race, truncating their fair chance to contest the nomination.
No one should begrudge Clinton or Trump playing the “sense of inevitability” card that they’re going to get the nomination. That’s standard campaign technique. After all, if you can convince the public the race is over, it falls to the opponent to waste energy to convince voters otherwise.
Except this year, not only does the arithmetic prove both Trump and Clinton still fall short of the nomination, but that the public clearly wants the testing for the world’s most powerful office to continue to the last vote is cast and counted.
Let’s be plain: Clinton and Trump are very close to reaching the important numbers. But it’s the voters’ right to decide if they want to put Trump or Clinton over-the-top, or to boost their opponents and create a “let’s-see-their-persuasion-skills” open convention fight. And as a Democratic official with the title of super delegate, I prefer to see voters in The District of Columbia cast their ballots before tossing my vote in one corner or another.
CBS Political Director John Dickerson says the math shows that Trump must win 52% of the remaining delegates to meet the convention rules and win a majority. Other professionals, like NBC Political Director Chuck Todd, also ballparks Trump as needing to win about 57% of the remaining delegates. When we consider that, until New York, Trump had never won fifty percent of the vote, then that spells real competition; especially considering that Cruz has won primaries above fifty percent, and Kasich’s vote-getting power is increasing.
Yes, the math shows that Cruz cannot mathematically secure the nomination in the remaining primaries. But the same math shows that Trump, mathematically, has to superscore in each and every primary to win, something he has achieved but once. Given some of the rules, like winner takes all, or most, he will likely get close to achieving victory before heading to Cleveland.
The real dark horses in this election year are Kasich and Sanders. No professional thought they would get this far. It’s an astounding feat of survival of the fittest. Sanders now has his toughest test. He needs to win 73 percent of the delegates being contested in these last primaries, according to Slate’s senior writer, John Voorhees.
But, Sanders has an argument. He says, correctly, that the Democrat’s SuperDelegates are up for grabs and he intends to win them over. Now, as a super delegate himself, Sanders understand that he will have to woo not just his Senate colleagues, but his home state Governor and the former Governor Howard Dean who is a former Chair of the DNC. We represent the interests of the Democratic Party, serving effectively as a peer review board of veteran public servants.
Further, we can change our minds as often as we think prudent. These SuperDelegates compose 15 percent of the total delegates, and could indeed make a difference on the convention floor. It will be a tough sell. Sanders is facing the best warrior candidate of any party; yet his supporters and the voters say, “let him try.”
California, among the last to vote on June 7, may very well be the “Make or Break” state. We need to let candidates mine The Golden State for nomination nuggets.
Elections are about seeking competent, tested leadership, and most importantly, framing and deciding issues on the economy, immigration, and defense. Even losing candidates can, through the power of the voters they win, shape the party’s position, and push the winning candidates to encompass more of their view.
Incidentally, one of the results of the New York primary is the talk making the rounds that we are seeing a ‘more presidential’ Donald Trump afterwards. Have you seen that? We’ve really lowered our standards when we say Trump is more presidential because he got through one press conference without insulting any of his opponents.
What I have seen is Donald Trump insulting Republican delegates who’ve been elected by the voters to support Cruz, Rubio, Bush, and Kasich. If I were one of their delegates, I’d bristle and fight back. Trump is saying that delegates who support Cruz et al, won by fraudulent manipulation at the polls — the definition of rigging.
It ain’t so.
