Three Tickets to the Future
The future lay in snowy New Hampshire, and so former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was pumping student’s hands at the Nashua Community College when Iowa’s final vote tally straggled in. In this horse race, Clinton beat Vermont’s Senator Bernie Sanders by a nose, winning herself another ticket to New Hampshire. Bernie joined her in first class.
Texas’ Senator Ted Cruz was a ticket-winner too, and could be found a mere 9.5 miles away from Clinton, making a pitch to voters in a Town Hall meeting at Crossing Life Church in Windham. Later that evening, businessman extraordinaire Donald Trump’s limousine would cruise into Milford for a rally at the Hampshire Hills Athletic Club Tennis Courts.
The political saying is “There are three tickets out of Iowa” — first, second, and third place. There are three for each party, six in all. Former Maryland’s Governor Martin O’Malley, by default, won a coach ticket, but landed in the exit row. Marco Rubio also won a coach seat with expanded leg room. He placed a solid third, nearly besting Trump overall ( 23.1% to Trump’s 24.3%) — in fact, in four out of five Iowa counties that Rubio won, Trump placed third.
While the future lies in New Hampshire, the recent past kicked some behinds in Iowa. Voters shattered Trump’s aura of a man who always wins and revealed that candidate Trump has serious weaknesses.
Iowa also showed us that Trump’s campaign is top-heavy in strategy, focusing almost entirely on media, and being exceptionally weak in turning out his supporters, despite the hard work of his ground team
Ted Cruz’s campaign, however, melded his get-out-the-vote foot soldiers together with his hired media team, Cambridge Analytica. This media firm created profiles of voters that identified specifically how committed each was and where each lived, among many other things. But Trump’s strategy depended more on motivating his supporters through his rallies and media saturation. Trump’s campaign crowds didn’t translate to voters at the polls.
When election night came, Cruz had a key advantage over Trump in knowing precisely who his supporters were, and in getting them to the polls. But, the single overriding factor in Cruz’s win was that Cruz got more of the Evangelical, born-again, Christian vote than Trump did.
Trump cornered some evangelicals. The Wall Street Journal reported that 62% of Trump supporters, like their candidate, are not regular church-goers. Plus Trump messed up repeatedly by attempting to pander to people of faith. Bible thumping at a rally, Trump mispronounced Second Corinthians as “Two Corinthians,” leading to the tweets like “Two Corinthians walked into a bar…” and “God, make him come in two place.”
Trump later attended a church service. When the communion tray came to Trump, he mistook it for a collection plate, reaching for a wad of bills. The evangelical voters in Iowa are a big block; they can swing a race, and they did.
Marco Rubio benefited from Trump’s attacks on Ted Cruz, whose less committed voters migrated to Rubio. In New Hampshire, Rubio is casting himself as a conservative Republican who can unite conservatives. Republican voters want a candidate independent of the Republican Establishment in Washington. The Republican Party is in a real crisis and could break apart if this schism won’t heal.
Democrats split down the middle in Iowa, not just in votes, but by generation and income. Sen. Bernie Sanders attracted 84 percent of voters under age forty to Clinton’s 14 percent. while Clinton got 59% of voters over forty, to Sander’s 34 percent. There were more Iowa voters over 40, than under, giving Clinton a breathtaking, narrow win.
That’s good for the Democrats. Had Hillary, or Bernie, clinched it in New Hampshire, the air would have gone out of the race. Voters are drawn to a horse race. This Democratic battle will be prolonged, which ensures continuing media interest and energizing the Democrat’s base.
New Hampshire is the twin sister of Vermont, Sander’s home state. He leads by double-digits and there’s no reason to think that will change, though Clinton should whittle Sander’s lead a little. She has to figure out how to inspire young voters and first time participants who might not recall the so called vaulted Clinton years.
But, this is a national contest. Winning in two states that are 95 percent white doesn’t cut it. Pew Research pollsters say this American electorate is the most diverse in U.S. history. For both parties, the real test comes when they hit South Carolina, Nevada and other states with more diversity.
Trump is leading by double-digits in New Hampshire, but the state is no longer a slam-dunk for him. His aura of invincibility is gone. Late deciding voters in Iowa broke for Cruz, which could happen in the Granite State. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, quietly, has already climbed to second place contention.
There’s a famous movie line, “I wish I knew how to quit you.” Well, Jeb Bush found how to quit Iowa. By design, Bush barely had a presence there. Instead, he’s poured millions into attack ads in New Hampshire, seeking to lower Kasich’s, Rubio’s and Christie’s numbers so he can garner their voters and place second. And the exit row seats are now partially filled with Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, current U.S. Senator Rand Paul and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee departing the contest.
But now, thanks to their tickets out of Iowa, we find ourselves with six candidates likely doing well enough to fly out of New Hampshire next week (Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Kasich, Christie and Bush). Get ready for a spirited debate, an epic struggle among, at long last, mostly professional politicians with experience governing versus self avowed outsiders battling it out in the GOP primary. And a fierce conversation on the political soul of the Democratic party.
Final thought: Trump enters New Hampshire wounded, a victory there no longer a certainty for the man who never loses. Onward to South Carolina and Nevada.