Republicans on Trial
There’s no sugarcoating it. Democrats got crushed on Election Day 2014.
President Obama, in a press conference on Wednesday, summarized the 2014 election well: “Obviously, Republicans had a good night, and deserve credit for running good campaigns.” He added that the message of the election was that Americans want their elected officials to “work as hard as they do.”
The midterm elections in a president’s second term have always been dangerous for the party that controls the White House. The major exception in recent history has been Bill Clinton in 1998, when the Democrats gained five seats in the House, and the party makeup of the Senate stayed the same.
As much as Democratic candidates sought to localize the 2014 election, the Republicans sought to nationalize it. They made this election a referendum on President Obama’s leadership and policies. As the American public often does, it sent mixed messages in the voting booth, supporting many Democratic (and Obama-supported) initiatives, while not supporting many Democratic (and Obama-supported) candidates.
Turnout will be, after all the votes are counted, around 38 percent of the electorate. This would be the lowest midterm turnout since 1942, when we were in the middle of World War II.
The New York Times reports about 2014’s turnout: “Democrats were hindered by their inability to persuade members of the coalition that delivered the White House to Mr. Obama — young voters, women and minorities — to turn out at levels seen in presidential elections.”
Voters went to the polls to elect 36 governors, 36 senators and 435 representatives. Democrats had a tough year overall electing their candidates. The base wasn’t fired up (which was not helped by the effort candidates took to distance themselves from the president), and Democrats had a difficult time persuading independents to come our way. Many socially conservative Republicans moved to the middle on raising the minimum wage (at least on a state level) and even on providing over-the-counter birth control. As a result, independents felt more comfortable backing them.
The Republicans needed to gain six seats to win control of the U.S. Senate, and they accomplished that, winning at least seven.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, who won re-election in Kentucky and is expected to become majority leader in the new Senate, explained Tuesday’s results this way: “For too long, this administration has tried to tell the American people what is good for them and then blame somebody else when their policies didn’t work out.”
Republicans thus gained control of both houses of Congress, but the president retains veto power, and the Senate Democratic minority can filibuster Republican legislation.
Going into the election, the Republicans had the governorship advantage, holding 29 of the state mansions. When the dust settles — Alaska and Vermont yet to come — Republicans will likely hold 31 governorships to Democrats’ 18, a two-seat gain (an independent is currently leading in Alaska’s race). Deep blue states, including Massachusetts, Illinois and Maryland, elected Republican governors.
Republicans picked up seats on both the federal and state level — in the U.S. Congress and in state legislatures. However, the results of ballot initiatives indicate the American public that turned out to vote does not support Republican policy in lockstep. Republicans have almost universally rejected minimum wage increases. Yet all five states that had a minimum wage on the ballot approved a raise. Four of those states — Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakota — are generally Republican states.
Republican candidates, in general, have opposed gun safety laws. Voters in Washington state overwhelmingly supported universal background checks on gun purchases at gun shows. Massachusetts voters approved 40 days of paid sick leave for employees, who no longer must find someone trusted to sit with a sick child while they work. Paid sick leave won on the ballot at the city level in Trenton and Montclair, New Jersey, and in Oakland, California.
Voters in Colorado and North Dakota rejected a “personhood” amendment. Such proposals hold that life beings at conception, and prohibit some forms of birth control. Republican Sen.-elect Cory Gardner in Colorado was a long-time supporter of personhood amendments, flip-flopped and recanted his position, effectively endorsing Democratic policy.
Tuesday was a bad day for Democrats, but not for Democratic policy priorities. For now, Democrats need to rethink the strategy for winning in 2016 — starting with rebuilding and re-tooling the party at the grassroots level, educating our candidates on handling the media, and having our values articulated in a distinctive, clear brand. If we don’t, we risk losing when the stakes are much larger.
